Hybrid mutual fund (MF) offers, expected to drive higher investor interest after the change in debt fund taxation, are set to end 2023 with the slowest account growth in the past three years. Investment accounts in hybrid funds are up 5.7 per cent so far in 2023 compared with 7.6 per cent in 2022 and 20 per cent in 2021, shows the data from the Association of Mutual Funds in India (Amfi). In 2020, the count had dipped 2.4 per cent.
Actively managed debt funds with the flexibility to go long on duration made a strong comeback on the returns chart in 2023, thanks to softening bond yields. The average one-year returns of floater, long-duration, gilt, and dynamic bond funds, which ranged between 2.3 per cent and 4.5 per cent at the end of 2022, now stand at over 7.2 per cent, with some schemes delivering over 8.5 per cent, according to data from Value Research. Debt fund returns are inversely related to yields of underlying investments, meaning a decline in yields is positive for funds.
Eleven companies have launched their initial public offerings (IPOs) in December 2023, making this month the second-best December for public offerings since 1996. Collectively, they are raising Rs 8,182.7 crore this month. In December 2021, 11 companies raised Rs 9,534 crore. However, excluding December 2021, this month marks the best December for IPOs since 1996.
The benchmark Nifty and Sensex could see another 8-10 per cent from the current levels, said HDFC Securities in its outlook for equity markets in 2024. The brokerage said that the market movement in the next year will not be linear, and there will be more volatility. When asked about the market reaction to the General Elections in 2024, Dhiraj Relli, managing director and CEO of HDFC Securities, said more than the outcome of the elections, the market movement in the next three to four months will decide the market trajectory post elections.
Post the change in debt fund taxation in March, a lesser-known hybrid fund has emerged as one of the alternatives for fixed-income investors. Equity savings schemes, the smallest hybrid fund category in terms of assets, have raked in around Rs 6,000 crore this financial year (FY24) so far compared to Rs 1,100-crore outflow in FY23. The inflows along with a strong performance led to a 50 per cent surge in assets under management (AUM) to Rs 24,100 crore during April-November, shows data from the Association of Mutual Funds in India (Amfi).
A combination of strong earnings and economic growth, and hopes of the Federal Reserve ending the rate-hike cycle have pushed gross buying of Indian equities by foreign portfolio investors (IPO) to a new high. In 2023, FPIs have been gross buyers of shares worth Rs 25.5 trillion, the highest ever in a calendar year. FPIs also sold shares worth Rs 23.9 trillion. On a net basis, they were net buyers to the tune of Rs 1.6 trillion, the highest since 2020.
Going 'long' is becoming an overcrowded trade on Dalal Street, and any negative trigger could lead to a sharp correction, warn experts. However, given the strong momentum, particularly in IT stocks, the downside could be protected in the immediate term. "With the Nifty50 surging to new life-time highs, the bulls remain in control. Further upsides are likely once the immediate resistance of 21,492 is taken out.
The gap between market capitalisation of Hong Kong and India has dwindled significantly. At present, India's market cap stands at approximately $4.3 trillion, while Hong Kong's is around $4.7 trillion. In the depths of the Covid-19 crisis in March 2020, Hong Kong's market cap, at $4.6 trillion, was 3.44 times larger than India's.
More than half a dozen companies will hit the market with their initial public offerings (IPOs) between now and the end of next week. The cumulative amount raised from these IPOs is expected to be around Rs 8,000 crore. Stationery products firm DOMS Industries and home financier India Shelter Finance's IPOs - of Rs 1,200 crore each - got off to a flying start on Wednesday (December 13), with the former garnering over six times the subscription and the latter getting 1.5 times subscribed.
'The deal pipeline across products is robust for 2024.'
Fundraising through qualified institutional placement (QIP) has revived this year, led by commercial banks, after a lacklustre 2022. According to data compiled by Prime Database, Indian companies have raised Rs 53,070 crore in 2023 so far, of which seven banks - Union Bank of India, Indian Bank, Bank of India, Federal Bank, IDFC First Bank, Bank of Maharashtra, and J&K Bank - account for Rs 21,290 crore, or about 40 per cent. If other financial institutions are included, the figure surges to Rs 26,690 crore.
Following the sharp run in markets, valuations across the board have become elevated. The National Stock Exchange Nifty50 Index now trades at a 12-month trailing price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple of 24.3 times, 18 per cent higher than this year's low of 20.5 times. The valuation expansion in the broader markets has been sharper.
Retail investors now own a bigger slice of smallcap companies than at the start of 2023-24 (FY24), underscoring their growing conviction about investing in this red-hot space. Data from Capitaline shows mutual funds' (MFs') average holding in the National Stock Exchange Nifty Smallcap 250 rising to 9.26 per cent from 8.67 per cent during the first six months of FY24, with the number of companies with over 20 per cent MF holdings increasing from 24 to 28. In comparison, MF holdings in Nifty50 companies have gone up only marginally, from 9.67 per cent to 9.75 per cent.
After a sharp rally in the equities market this year, investors could be better off rotating some funds towards the debt market. Experts believe several tailwinds could spur bond market returns over the next 12-18 months. These include India's robust macroeconomics, declining inflation, and the imminent passive flows of close to Rs 2.5 trillion on account of domestic sovereign bonds getting included in the JP Morgan global indices.
Mutual funds (MFs) are likely to surpass foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) in terms of anchor investments in initial public offerings (IPOs) for the second consecutive year. In calendar year 2023 so far, MFs have invested Rs 5,577 crore as anchor investors, compared to the Rs 5,417 crore invested by FPIs this year. In 2022, MFs put in Rs 9,026 crore as anchor investment, 21 per cent higher than the FPI tally of Rs 7,105 crore. This marked the first time since 2014 that MFs had outpaced FPIs in anchor investments.
Global private equity (PE) firms are successfully offloading large equity stakes in domestic companies in the open market, taking advantage of buoyant conditions. Strong domestic liquidity support and an upward trending market have underpinned over a dozen PE exits worth $2.5 billion, data compiled by Business Standard shows. The figures exclude PE exits during maiden share sales and shares sold by strategic investors, such as SoftBank and Ant Group in new-age companies.
A buoyant equity market, coupled with an improved performance of mutual funds (MFs) on the returns chart, has heightened retail investors' appetite for equities. In the past few months, equity MF schemes have seen a surge in fresh investments through both lump sum (one-time investments) and systematic investment plan (SIP) routes. During the August-September 2023 period, equity MF schemes recorded net lump sum investments of Rs 35,270 crore, compared to just Rs 5,550 crore in the previous three months, according to data from the Association of Mutual Funds in India (Amfi).
The National Stock Exchange (NSE) of India is going to indefinitely defer the internal deadline set for extending trading hours, according to sources in the know. The exchange aimed to introduce a three-hour evening session exclusively for index derivatives by March 2024, contingent upon regulatory clearance from the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi). Sources indicate that the market regulator has not provided a favourable indication, dimming optimism surrounding the proposal.
'A key reason for the strong interest in IPOs has been an increased focus on profitability and reasonable pricing of deals.'
An improved showing of mutual funds (MFs) is helping the industry attract distribution talent at a brisk pace. The industry has onboarded a net of 11,600 individual distributors in the first seven months of 2023-24 (FY24) compared to just 5,555 distributors in the whole of 2022-23 (FY23), according to data from the Association of Mutual Funds in India. Like most financial products, MFs also have significant reliance on individual distributors to sell their products, even as digital platforms are gaining popularity.
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